The Mubarak trap

During the long period of dictatorship in the Arab world, many analysts were saying that it is a vulnerability for a country to be embodied in a single person. This makes the country weak not only because this person can have personal interests or wrong judgments, but also because the state in that case becomes as vulnerable as that person, if he falls, the whole system collapses. I think this is right. The pickle now is not with Egypt as a country, but with the whole American interest in the Middle East that is tied to one person, making it as vulnerable as Mubarak himself.

The common sense dictates that (at least from now on) the interests of states should be tied not to persons, but to nations, ruled with sustainable governments that represent these people properly. This way, no matter who will be the president the partnership will survive.

Now, let’s talk about the methods that Mubarak is using to get out of the hole he have been digging for himself for 30 years.

The strategy that the dictator is now using is not something that I think he or any of his stupid ministers or advisers could think of. I am almost certain that the Israelis are helping him with it, in addition to other things.

First of all, he, with help of Israeli leaders of course, managed to eliminate the potential of any support for the revolution from the US or Europe. I assume the final agreement was that “if you will not support me, then at least don’t support them.” The tasteless US stance about the crisis is a clear indication of that.

After the fear of external intervention was handled, the attention shifted to the internal arena, along with the media. Suddenly, the president decided to let the police back to the streets to keep the people ‘safe’. The police was back everywhere except for Tahrir square, where the vast majority of protesters are in. The goal was to change the perception of the world, and of the people, about the revolution from being a nationwide uprising, to being considered a group of anti government protestors in a normally running ‘democratic’ country.

By doing this, Mubarak is trying to depict the revolution to something similar to the events in Thailand, counting for the long-term impact to secure him back into his office. He wants to make this stand off a long one, to allow the security to go back on streets, without having clashes for which he could be blamed for, and wait for the protestors to get bored and to go home.

In addition to that, and in another (even more disparate) attempt to influence the media, the president has collected dozens of obviously security forces to protest for the government, and made sure the national television is showing them. The last media tool was to show that he is reaching out for the protestors, through a statement that the newly appointed vice president read on television, saying that the government is (only now!) ready to look into allegations of fraud in the parliamentary elections that took place few months ago.

His plans to prolong the conflict were of course interrupted by the declaration of the protestors to marsh in millions towards the presidential palace tomorrow, which coincided with an announcement from the army saying that it refuses to use force against citizens.

The evil in Mubarak’s ‘advisers’ didn’t stop there, there were news that some government security forces have distributed guns to criminals and convicts to shoot at the army tomorrow, in an attempt to provoke clashes between the army and protestors.

We will still have to wait and see what tomorrow will bring to Egypt, but the sure thing is, there is no way all of these millions of Egyptians will go back to their previous lives under the rule of Mubarak. It will never happen again that he will be a president in a country where people wake up in the morning and peacefully go to their work and go back home. Anyone who assumes this is possible knows nothing about Arabs.

I hope tomorrow will be the last day for Mubarak in Egypt.

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